Some people think that to get labor statistics figures on unemployment, the Government uses the number of persons filing claims for unemployment insurance (UI) benefits under State or Federal Government programs. But some people are still jobless when their benefits run out, and many more are not eligible at all or delay or never apply for benefits. So, quite clearly, UI information cannot be used as a source for complete information on the number of unemployed. According to the Department of Labor the total number of people collecting unemployment insurance benefits as of August 13th is 7,336,276 (which is down from 9,794,901 last year). The US population over 15 is approximately 250,272,403.156. Which means less than 3% of the US population over 15 receives UI benefits.
Let’s take a look at how the numbers are actually calculated. Because unemployment insurance records relate only to persons who have applied for such benefits, and since it is impractical to actually count every unemployed person each month, the Government conducts a monthly sample survey called the Current Population Survey (CPS) to measure the extent of unemployment in the country. There are about 60,000 households in the sample for this survey. In order to select the sample, all of the counties and county-equivalent cities in the country first are grouped into 2,025 geographic areas (sampling units). The Census Bureau then designs and selects a sample consisting of 824 of these geographic areas to represent each State and the District of Columbia. Every month, one-fourth of the households in the sample are changed, so that no household is interviewed more than 4 consecutive months. Each month, 2,200 highly trained and experienced Census Bureau employees interview persons in the 60,000 sample households for information on the labor force activities. The information collected, relates to all household members 15 years of age and over. A sample is not a total count, and the survey may not produce the same results that would be obtained from interviewing the entire population. But the chances are 90 out of 100 that the monthly estimate of unemployment from the sample is within about 290,000 of the figure obtainable from a total census. This means there could have been up to 290,000 people hired this month. I keep hearing that the Obama administration failed to create any new jobs this month but I personally know of 2 people that were hired this month. There are probably more but it just isn’t a true fact that no jobs were created in the month of August.
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